L’impatto del virus sul mondo del lavoro a cura dell'Ufficio Salute e Sicurezza

20 marzo 2020 – L’Organizzazione Internazionale del Lavoro (OIL) ha pubblicato la Nota ‘COVID-19 and world of work: Impacts and responses’ che racchiude una valutazione preliminare circa l’impatto dell’emergenza sanitaria COVID-19 sul mondo del lavoro.
In linea generale, l’OIL stima che, a livello mondiale, la situazione pandemica porterà, nello scenario peggiore, alla perdita di quasi 25 milioni di posti di lavoro. Si tratta di una valutazione iniziale che prevede effetti sul lavoro di vasta portata: milioni di persone diventeranno disoccupate e sottoccupate, e soffriranno una condizione di povertà lavorativa. Per tale ragione, è necessaria una risposta decisa, coordinata e immediata (‘decisive, co-ordinated and immediate response’).
Nel dettaglio, l’OIL stima un aumento della disoccupazione globale con la perdita di posti di lavoro compresa tra i 5,3 milioni e i 24, 7 milioni. Facendo un confronto con la crisi economica (2008-2009), quest’ultima emergenza ha aumentato i livelli di disoccupazione di 22 milioni di unità. Anche la sottoccupazione dovrebbe aumentare su larga scala, in ragione del fatto che le conseguenze economiche dell’epidemia si traducono in riduzioni delle ore di lavoro e dei salari.
Inoltre, il lavoro autonomo nei Paesi in via di sviluppo, che spesso serve ad attenuare l’impatto dei cambiamenti nel mondo del lavoro e dell’economia, potrebbe non sortire questo effetto, a causa delle restrizioni alla circolazione delle persone e delle merci. Tuttavia, è da tenere conto che il lavoro autonomo rappresenta per molti una scelta di sopravvivenza e di sostegno al reddito nei momenti di crisi, spesso nelle sue forme informali.
Questo scenario si tradurrà in una riduzione dei consumi di beni e servizi, che, a sua volta, influenzerà le prospettive di ripresa per le imprese e le economie.
Per di più, il crollo dell’occupazione comporterà gravi perdite di reddito per i lavoratori: lo studio stima che tali perdite corrisponderanno tra gli 860 miliardi e i 3,4 trilioni di dollari entro la fine del 2020.
In aggiunta, ad aumentare significativamente sarà la povertà lavorativa, dal momento che ad essere maggiormente colpiti dalla crisi saranno i lavoratori prossimi o al di sotto della soglia di povertà. Più in particolare, l’OIL prospetta che le persone in condizioni di povertà aumenteranno tra gli 8,8 e i 35 milioni.
Per quanto concerne i settori maggiormente colpiti, nonostante la crisi avrà un significativo impatto in ogni comparto in termini di entrate, insolvenze e perdite di posti di lavoro, ad essere maggiormente esposti saranno il trasporto aereo, il turismo e il settore assistenziale. Tuttavia, è necessario tenere conto che, in modo trasversale ad ogni ambito di attività, le PMI subiranno le perdite più consistenti.
Le misure che saranno adottate per affrontare tale scenario dovranno tener conto dei gruppi di persone maggiormente vulnerabili, che in genere svolgono lavori meno protetti e meno retribuiti, come i giovani, più esposti alla disoccupazione e alla sottoccupazione, e, all’opposto, le persone più anziane, che, tra l’altro, subiscono i più gravi danni alla salute dal contagio.
Inoltre, nel novero devono essere inclusi: le donne, spesso sovra-rappresentate nei lavori a basso reddito e nei settori più colpiti dalla crisi; i migranti, in genere privi di protezione e diritti sociali; e i lavoratori atipici (autonomi, occasionali, gig, ecc.), che, in molte parti del mondo, non beneficiano dei congedi retribuiti e sono meno tutelati dai sistemi di protezione sociale e da numerose misure di sostegno al reddito.
Sulla scorta degli insegnamenti appresi nella gestione della crisi economica scoppiata nel 2008, la risposta alla crisi economica e del lavoro che deriva dalla emergenza sanitaria deve essere coordinata a livello internazionale, mediante una forte leadership multilaterale, e deve basarsi su tre pilastri: proteggere la salute e sicurezza dei lavoratori sul posto di lavoro; stimolare l’economia e la domanda di lavoro; sostenere l’occupazione e il reddito da lavoro.
Più in particolare, riguardo il primo pilastro, è necessario:
– incentivare il telelavoro e una diversa organizzazione dell’orario di lavoro. A tal proposito, l’OIL prende come esempio le misure adottate in Italia;
– ampliare l’accesso ai congedi di malattia retribuiti. In alcuni Paesi, ad esempio, sono state adottate misure ad hoc per i lavoratori contagiati o in quarantena;
– fornire consulenza a distanza alle imprese sulle misure di salute e sicurezza da adottare nei luoghi di lavoro per il contrasto al COVID-19;
– contrastare la stigmatizzazione e la discriminazione dei lavoratori, in particolar modo di quelli maggiormente esposti al contagio, come gli operatori sanitari;
– introdurre misure di assistenza all’infanzia per i genitori che lavorano. Tra gli esempi citati, l’OIL menziona le misure previste dal Governo italiano.
Per la realizzazione del secondo pilastro, è opportuno:
– adottare misure di politica fiscale attiva e politica monetaria. L’Italia, ad esempio, ha introdotto agevolazioni fiscali e deroghe per i contributi di sicurezza sociale, nonché proroghe delle scadenze per il rimborso dei mutui, mentre le banche centrali di molti Paesi (Australia, Canada, Nuova Zelanda, Regno Unito e Stati Uniti) hanno ridotto i tassi di interesse;
–  introdurre prestiti e rafforzare il sostegno finanziario per specifici settori, soprattutto, a breve termine, a beneficio del comparto sanitario e produttivo dei dispositivi medici e DPI;
In riferimento al terzo pilastro, l’OIL sollecita:
– la riduzione dell’orario di lavoro e la sottoscrizione di accordi di compensazione salariale, attraverso piano di riduzione retribuita degli orari lavorativi e indennità di disoccupazione parziale;
– la conservazione dell’occupazione con ulteriori mezzi, ad esempio attraverso le misure contro i licenziamenti per i lavoratori in malattia o in quarantena;
– l’ampliamento delle indennità di disoccupazione, l’introduzione di prestazioni di assistenza sociale a sostegno del reddito e altre misure per stimolare la domanda aggregata. Ad esempio, ad Hong Kong i residenti riceveranno una compensazione una tantum pari a 1.280 $ al fine di stimolare l’economia dell’1%.
L’adozione di sgravi finanziari e fiscali per le imprese. Su esempio di alcuni Paesi nel mondo, dovrebbero essere introdotti: garanzie pubbliche sui prestiti e sugli scoperti bancari; finanziamenti agli enti locali per sostenere le PMI; agevolazioni sull’IVA; il differimento del pagamento di contributi e imposte o, in casi estremi, la riduzione degli oneri sociali e fiscali.
Inoltre, l’OIL individua due strumenti fondamentali per mitigare i danni e ripristinare la fiducia della popolazione mondiale: da una parte, il dialogo sociale – sia a livello istituzionale che infra-aziendale – crea i presupposti per una efficace interazione tra datori di lavoro, lavoratori e i loro rappresentanti, affinché tutte le misure adottate siano implementate nei luoghi di lavoro; dall’altra, le norme internazionali del lavoro costituiscono il basamento fondamentale per le misure politiche incentrate su una ripresa economica vocata alla sostenibilità e alla equità sociale.

ILO_Note_COVID_19

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