NEAR MISS: la parte sommersa dell’iceberg infortunistico A cura di Franco D'Amico, Responsabile dei Servizi Statistico Informativi ANMIL

17 giugno 2021 – Con il termine anglosassone “near miss” (traducibile in “quasi infortunio” o “infortunio mancato”) si definisce qualsiasi evento, correlato al lavoro, che avrebbe potuto causare un infortunio con conseguenze più o meno gravi, ma che, solo per puro caso, non lo ha prodotto: un evento quindi che ha in sé la potenzialità di produrre un evento lesivo. Nella letteratura in materia si fa a volte ricorso all’esempio del pesante martello lasciato inavvertitamente sul bordo di un ponteggio in un cantiere edile: si configura, in questo caso, una situazione di pericolo che può avere tre diversi tipi di epilogo: 1) il martello rimane sul ponteggio: permane inalterata la situazione di pericolo; 2) il martello, per vari motivi, cade e colpisce un operaio che stava lavorando di sotto: si verifica un infortunio sul lavoro; 3) il martello cade ma, fortunatamente, di sotto non c’è nessuno in quel momento: è il caso di un near miss.
Tutti gli esperti del settore concordano nel ritenere che, proporzionalmente, i “quasi infortuni” sono molto più numerosi degli infortuni effettivi che rappresentano solo la minima parte, quella emersa ed evidente, del fenomeno (paragonabile alla tanto famosa quanto abusata punta dell’iceberg) e pertanto andrebbero considerati anch’essi nel contesto dei cosiddetti  “indicatori di rischio”. Ai fini della determinazione di tali indicatori, infatti, è molto importante disporre di una base informativa che sia quanto più possibile numericamente consistente e in grado di consentire un livello di significatività statistica elevato ed affidabile.
Naturalmente non è dato conoscere, allo stato attuale delle procedure di rilevazione, l’effettiva dimensione  numerica di tali infortuni mancati, che, come si diceva, non vengono registrati anche per le oggettive difficoltà di individuazione e rilevazione. Non mancano, tuttavia, studiosi e appassionati che si sono cimentati in elaborazione di stime basate sull’osservazione di situazioni reali. Già nel secolo scorso, nel 1931,  l’americano William Heinrich, uno statistico impiegato in una compagnia privata  di assicurazione contro gli infortuni sul lavoro, sulla base di una attenta analisi effettuata su circa 75.000 casi di tutti gli eventi lavorativi da lui registrati e descritti dettagliatamente nel corso della sua carriera, elaborò la teoria della cosiddetta “Piramide di Heinrich”.
Tale teoria si basa sostanzialmente sul principio, peraltro abbastanza ovvio ed intuitivo, che gli infortuni di lieve entità sono di gran lunga superiori numericamente rispetto a quelli gravi e ancor più a quelli molto gravi o letali. In pratica la distribuzione degli infortuni secondo la gravità degli esiti disegnano una piramide con alla base il numero degli infortuni lievi che si restringe man mano che cresce la gravità fino alla punta della piramide dove si concentrano i casi con esito letale.
Se guardiamo, infatti, alla rappresentazione degli infortuni rilevati nel nostro Paese dall’INAIL negli ultimi anni distribuiti secondo il livello di gravità, si riscontra che in cima alla piramide si contano circa 1.000 infortuni mortali, scendendo se ne trovano circa 7.000 con grado 16%-100% (quelli indennizzati in rendita), poi 27.000 casi di grado 6%-15% (indennizzati in capitale), 38.000 casi di grado 1%-5% (indennizzati per inabilità temporanea) e, infine, 280.000 senza postumi permanenti, ma anch’essi indennizzati in temporanea. Per un totale di circa 350.000 infortuni indennizzati.
Nella “piramide” elaborata da Heinrich la ripartizione si presenta in maniera molto più semplificata: per 1 evento mortale o molto grave (con oltre 30 giorni di prognosi), ci sono 29 infortuni più o meno gravi (da 3 a 30 giorni di prognosi) e 300 “quasi infortuni”. In pratica ogni 30 infortuni effettivi ci sono 300 “near miss” in un rapporto di uno a 10.
Anche studi più recenti effettuati in campo nazionale e internazionale, hanno confermato sostanzialmente il rapporto di 1 a 10 tra infortuni rilevati e “near miss”.
Se volessimo ragionevolmente assimilare gli infortuni effettivi indicati nella piramide di Heinrich ai “nostri” infortuni indennizzati, si potrebbe ipotizzare una stima annua di almeno 3,5 milioni di “near miss” nel nostro Paese.
A fronte di dimensioni di tale consistenza, pur se in termini approssimativi di stima, appare del tutto evidente come a livello statistico sarebbe di fondamentale importanza disporre di informazioni dettagliate su modalità e circostanze non solo degli incidenti che si verificano effettivamente nei luoghi di lavoro ma anche di quelle situazioni di pericolo che l’infortunio avrebbero potuto causarlo, ma fortunatamente non si è concretizzato. Come già detto, questo amplierebbe notevolmente la base informativa per una conoscenza più completa e significativa del fenomeno infortunistico. Conoscenza del fenomeno che, come noto, rappresenta la base, il punto di partenza imprescindibile per ogni campagna o iniziativa di prevenzione corretta ed efficace. 

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